By the late sixteen hundreds, the Yngling family found itself in something of a strategic dilemma. The structural weakness of the Norwegian Empire, its perennial lack of trustworthy troops, meant that the Yngling military training had to be made ever more rigorous in order to keep increasing numbers of restive stril soldiers under control. However, while the various Yngling Guards units were certainly some of the finest infantry of their day, this concentration on military matters meant that the economy necessarily took second place. The ‘safety valve’ opened in the previous century, of permitting soldiers with their time expired to marry into the Yngling family, did nothing to improve matters, since its main effect was to redirect the best and most ambitious members of the subject classes into military careers. Civilian enterprises, therefore, had neither prestige nor the best people to run them; not unnaturally, they tended to get the worst of it in competition with outlanders.
Norway’s economic doldrums had their worst effect on the fleet, ‘the power and the pride’ as the expression went. In spite of being the world’s supplier of naval timber, Norway was unable to compete with the continental Powers in sheer number of hulls. The navy that had swept the Caribbean and Atlantic clean of Spanish flags now found itself considering whether the Norwegian coastline could be defended in a conflict with England.
A different nation might have responded to these problems by retreating into a defensive posture; but Norway’s difficulties were compounded by the expansionism of the Ynglings. Two centuries of colonising the Americas had left a deep expectation that there would always be land available for partition into estates – a process which rapidly used up even the vast American conquests, since Yngling estates tended towards the grand. The Plantation Law of 1660, which limited the acreage that could be claimed by any one person, somewhat alleviated the problem; nevertheless, Ynglings increasingly found themselves with the unpalatable choice of estates in marginal lands, or no estates at all. Naturally, this produced a clamour at every Ting for expansion.
Unfortunately, the world in 1680 had largely been divided by the Great Powers. Except for Poland, none of Norway’s neighbours were weak enough to make an attack attractive; and Poland was protected by its Spanish alliance, as well as Burgundian ambitions in Germany. With the defeat and consequent retreat to Persia of Hungary, Norway’s traditional ally, Yngling prospects in a European war seemed dim.
It was increasingly clear that only a gamble could break the vicious circle and propel Norway once more into the front rank of the Great Powers. As the 1680s progressed, the Norwegian court was constantly on the lookout for the opportunity to fight a large, victorious war. When the chance finally came, it was from an unexpected direction…
- From Berserker to Battleship : Norway 1066-1920, Bergenhus University Press
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There are now two strata of Powers in Europe. At the top are the Western nations, Spain, England, and Burgundy, united in a triple alliance. Taking the definition of a Great Power as a nation capable of fighting any adversary and having a reasonable chance of winning, these three are the only Great Powers in the world; in income, technology, and military force they are at the top of the heap.
Of the remaining powers of Europe – Norway, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Byzantium – Norway finds itself in a sort of middle position : Unable to compete one-on-one with the majors, but stronger than any one of the other second-rank powers. Hungary, Italy and Poland are of reasonably equal strength; small and backwards Byzantium is well behind, and in some danger of partition, like the unfortunate Kingdom of Jerusalem.
This being so, the objectives of the various nations, in a realist analysis, are fairly clear. The three Great Powers should each strive to leave the other two behind and become the sole hegemon; Spain is already some way towards accomplishing this. The obvious way would be to use the second-rank nations to drag down the competing Great Powers, while carefully preserving one’s own forces, and ensuring that the lesser allies did not gain too much. Another option would be to conquer enough land to gain a major culture – French, German, or even Chinese. England has already begun this with the acquisition of Japan, and Burgundy seems to have been out to collect German provinces in its recent wars with Hungary and Italy.
The second-rank nations, meanwhile, have slightly different options available to them. Only Norway is really in a position to increase its strength enough to become a Great Power; this does, however, depend on an alliance with one of the existing ones against at least one of the other two. Naturally, the Great Power ally will not wish to see Norway strengthened, but rather to weaken its rival (though in Spain’s case, distant Norway might be preferable as a rival to neighbouring Burgundy and England). As the weaker party in such an alliance, Norway would have to dance carefully to make sure it got its increment of strength, rather than serving as a useful cat’s paw in creating a hegemon.
Poland, Hungary and Italy, meanwhile, do not really have the strength to become first-rank Powers with a single big victory. However, their strength, individually and especially combined, is by no means negligible. Their strategy should therefore be similar to Norway’s, though focused more on the long haul than on the single big victory : Ally with one or two of the Great Powers against the remainder, and try to get enough of the spoils to rise in power without giving their ally a dominant position. Hungary (which is about to become Persia) also has the option of simply waiting things out : Its sheer size will make it deadly in the Vicky era, in spite of its recent losses in Europe.
The trick, then, is that the Great Powers need the help of the second-rank powers in order to defeat their peer rivals and become sole superpowers; meanwhile the lesser powers want Great-Power aid in increasing their own power, without inadvertently creating a hegemon. The question is who will be able to take advantage of whom. May the best backstabber win…
