The Sons of Raghnall: More Statistics

So, as it was a very quiet session – the main event of note for me was that I gained Huron as an accepted culture, which perhaps I will comment on in a history-book format next week, unless other events intervene – I’ve been working on some statistics. First, I updated my loss histogram from last week:

Losses

Now also with major wars marked! Only wars with a duration of at least one year (that is, first battle in year X, last battle year X+1 at least) and with more than 100k dead are shown, otherwise there wouldn’t be room for the legend – getting pretty crowded anyway. The height of the war lines indicates the average yearly casualties.

Next, I did some work on goods prices. This turned out highly nontrivial; it appears that the Wiki documentation on the demand calculation, in particular, is out of date. However, I persevered and now have numbers that I more or less believe. So, here is, for example, the price development of fur over our game:

Fur prices

Observe the drop around 1480, presumably due to the large number of large wars at the time; we can see the opposite development in iron:

Iron prices

Iron has also benefitted recently from a wave of Westernisations, vastly increasing demand all over the ROTW.

I’m not so sure what’s happening with cotton:

Cotton prices

but the steady price increase over a century seems like it could be explained by gradual addition of buildings all over; cotton has a lot of demand modifiers from buildings. The recent stagnation in the price is probably because demand has hit its maximum, 200%, so more buildings do nothing; and presumably Fivoin is slowly adding to the supply by colonising and by the increase in size of his colonies.

As cotton, so slaves: A long steady price increase, probably due to all those plantation provinces getting colonised (demand for slaves is zero outside of cotton/sugar/tobacco/coffee provinces), then stagnation.

Slave prices

Finally, grain is in what looks like a long, secular rise in price, presumably because of all those army buildings getting built; its demand is nowhere near 200%, so I expect the price increase to continue – particularly since strong grain producers can easily manipulate the price upwards.

Grain prices

Other goods available on request; at some point I may try to add some bells and whistles such as flags showing which nations were at war, a percentage of the world’s provinces (or basetax) fighting, and correlations between goods prices – I expect fur and iron to be strongly anticorrelated, for example.

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